Not only did they beat all the other groups in IARPA’s challenge in a landslide, but they actually did 30% better than professional CIA analysts working off classified information. We can discuss what skills help people make it this high, but we probably shouldn’t think of it as a specific phenomenon.Īnyway, the Good Judgment Project then put these superforecasters on teams with other superforecasters, averaged out their decisions, slightly increased the final confidence levels (to represent the fact that it was 60 separate people, all of whom were that confident), and presented that to IARPA as their final answer. Then Tetlock named them “superforecasters”. Two percent of forecasters were in the top two percent. But unless I’m missing something, there’s no evidence for this. This suggests a discontinuity, a natural division into two groups. But it’s important not to phrase this as “Philip Tetlock discovered that 2% of people are superforecasters”. That’s fine I’d love to know what puts someone in the top 2% of forecasters. When I read Tetlock’s paper, all he says is that he took the top sixty forecasters, declared them superforecasters, and then studied them intensively. …okay, now we’re getting to a part I don’t understand. 2,800 people showed up, and a few of them turned out to be… The plan was simple: get a bunch of people to sign up and try to predict things, then find the ones who did the best. Tetlock was one of these scientists, and his entry into the competition was called the Good Judgment Project. IARPA approached a bunch of scientists, handed them a list of important world events that might or might not happen, and told them to create some teams and systems for themselves and compete against each other to see who could predict them the best. They set up an Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency to try crazy things and see if any of them worked. The US intelligence community has just been seriously embarrassed by their disastrous declaration that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Tetlock found that the hedgehogs did worse than the chimp and the foxes did a little better.Ĭut to the late 2000s. Foxes are people who don’t have much of a narrative or ideology, but try to find the right perspective to approach each individual problem. Hedgehog pundits/experts are people who operate off a single big idea- for example, an economist who says that government intervention is always bad, predicts doom for any interventionist policy, and predicts great success for any noninterventionist one. His investigation into the secrets of their very moderate success led to his famous “fox” versus “hedgehog” dichotomy, based on the fable that “the fox knows many things, the hedgehog knows one big thing”. His first major experiment, the Expert Political Judgment experiment, is frequently cited as saying that top pundits’ predictions are no more accurate than a chimp throwing darts at a list of possibilities- although Tetlock takes great pains to confess to us that no chimps were actually involved, and this phrasing just sort of popped up as a flashier way of saying “random”.Īlthough this was generally true, he was able to distinguish a small subset of people who were able to do a little better than chance. We made the GEMs files available for FY 2016, FY 2017 and FY 2018.Īn announcement was also made at the September 2017 ICD-10 Coordination and Maintenance Committee meeting that FY 2018 would be the last GEMs file update.Philip Tetlock, author of Superforecasting, got famous by studying prediction.
As stated in the FY 2016 IPPS/LTCH PPS final rule (80 FR 49388), the GEMs have been updated on an annual basis as part of the ICD-10 Coordination and Maintenance Committee meetings process and will continue to be updated for approximately 3 years after ICD-10 is implemented. These 2020 ICD-10-PCS codes are to be used for discharges occurring from Octothrough September 30, 2020. The 2020 ICD-10 Procedure Coding System (ICD-10-PCS) files below contain information on the ICD-10-PCS updates for FY 2020. The files in the Downloads section below contain information on the ICD-10-PCS COVID-19 updates effective with discharges on and after August 1, 2020. In response to the COVID-19 public health emergency, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is implementing 12 new procedure codes to describe the introduction or infusion of therapeutics into the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Procedure Coding System (ICD-10-PCS), effective August 01, 2020.
0 kommentar(er)
